How Can Speculative Design Help Firms to Better Anticipate Risks?

Effective risk anticipation is essential for firms navigating complex and uncertain environments. Traditional enterprise risk management methods often emphasize near future risks, frequently overlooking distant future risks that could impact strategic planning. This ongoing research investigates how speculative design, a method rooted in arts and design research, can enhance a firm’s ability to anticipate risks. Guided by construal level theory, we propose that speculative design could enhance risk anticipation by improving blind spot detection, making risks more relatable through narrative accessibility, and transforming abstract risks into tangible embodied artifacts. We test this hypothesis using a 2x2 experimental design, which manipulates temporal distance (near future risks vs. distant future risks) and speculative design (absent vs. present). Data collection is currently underway, and results are yet to be gathered. This study aims to explore significant implications for enterprise risk management practices, acknowledges current limitations in the approach, and suggests future research directions to further refine and expand the application of speculative design in risk anticipation.